John Rubino – Persistent Inflation, Manufacturing And Housing Weakness, Central Banks Tightening Into Economic Contraction, The Energy Sector, And The Tech Sector
John Rubino, Founder of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on persistently high inflation, manufacturing weakness, the ramifications of central banks tightening into an economic contraction, more weakness in the housing market, the energy sector, and the rollover in tech stock leadership, as money keeps rotating. With so many areas of the economy under pressure, and earnings reports failing to live up to current general equities valuations, many investors are struggling to adapt and recognize the days of simply buying the dip are over, as the bear market continues to unfold. Analysts are finally starting to look for the price to earnings ratios to be in the realm of believable and this presents more room for pricing to retrace back down to where the fundamentals are aligned.
We get John’s thoughts on the energy sector, how oil and nat gas have stayed elevated, due to bad energy policies from many countries that lead markets to this point. John is most optimistic on the prospects of increasing nuclear energy power generation, and what that may mean for higher uranium prices and the uranium mining stocks. John also outlines some fundamental drivers of the physical markets that may be constructive for silver prices moving forward.
Wrapping up, we look at the rotation out of the prior sector leaders, like the FAANGS stocks of yesteryear, and how we are getting more of a return to the mean in many sectors through the continued corrective action; and that out of this market rebalancing that new leadership will emerge.
The Housing Market Is Unsustainable for Families
Mia Taylor – Fri, October 28, 2022
“Families face a perfect storm of rising inflation, a potential recession, and stubbornly high home prices.”
“Even beyond the outrageous prices and the unrealistic expectations that sellers have, which make it impossible for families to purchase a home, it seems that purchasing a house sight-unseen is the norm and that’s disastrous for families who have specific housing needs,” says Thelin.
“Add the more recent challenge of rapidly increasing interest rates and the pressures of record inflation on the family budget and suddenly buyers are being pushed out of the market altogether. Or at the very least, being forced to postpone home buying until market conditions soften just enough to bring buying conditions back within reason.”
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/housing-market-unsustainable-families-211147229.html
Home Prices Are Falling Faster Now Than In 2006—Redfin’s CEO Just Revealed Why
Lance Lambert – Mon, October 31, 2022
“The Pandemic Housing Boom unleashed an ‘investor mania’ unlike anything seen in the U.S. housing market since the aughts housing bubble. Average Joes poured into the market in hopes of building Airbnb empires. Institutional investors, like Blackstone-owned Home Partners of America, quickly expanded their single-family home portfolios. Homebuilders, eager to strike while the irons were hot, broke ground on a record number of ‘spec’ homes. While iBuyers, like Opendoor and Zillow, ramped up their algorithmic homebuying programs.”
“Fast-forward to October, and that investor mania has been replaced by investor panic. The ongoing housing correction—U.S. home prices have fallen 1.6% between June and August—has scared many investors to the sidelines. That marks the first national home price decline since 2012.”
“The investor pullback makes sense. While most housing economists don’t foresee a correction on scale with the Great Financial Crisis bust—during which U.S. home prices fell 27% between 2006 and 2012—they do acknowledge that this home price correction is sharper than it was in 2006. The lagged Case-Shiller Index already shows that home prices are down 8.2% in San Francisco.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/home-prices-falling-faster-now-194540822.html
Big Tech Looks Ahead To A Potentially Bleak Q4 And The Housing Market Cools Off –
Q.ai – Forbes AI Newsletter – Oct 31, 2022
– Silicon Valley’s finest have not had a great Q3, and things are looking worse for Q4
– The housing sector remains strong over the past 12 months, but it appears to be screeching to a halt with the biggest monthly drop in growth since records began in 1987
– Thematic investing is, potentially, a very attractive option
The Fed May Have To Blow Up The Economy To Get Inflation Under Control
7 News Miami – CNN – October 31, 2022
“The Federal Reserve is most likely going to raise interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point again on Wednesday, its fourth straight supersized hike. And it’s still possible another rate increase of that magnitude could come in December. But the big question for many investors — and American consumers — is whether the Fed will send the economy into a recession with these massive rate increases.”
“It’s unclear what all this tightening will do to the economy. The housing market is already starting to show some signs of strain. Bond yields have spiked due to the Fed. And mortgage rates, which tend to move in tandem with the benchmark 10-year Treasury, have skyrocketed this year as a result.”
“There is also a growing chorus of Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are warning Fed chair Jerome Powell and other Fed members to slow down the rate hikes because they fear even tighter monetary policy will lead to a recession.”
We’ve now seen 7 monthly red candles in a row for Gold. Many thought we’d see a green October, and where that set up was possible things eventually broke down a bit lower. That’s pretty long bearish run in the yellow metals, and a relief rally is overdue.
Pretty spooky markets out there… Happy Halloween!
John Rubino had some interesting comments on the energy markets, with regards to Oil, Nat Gas, and in particular his bullish outlook on the Uranium sector with so much more emphasis and new reactor builds for an increase in nuclear power. I tend to agree that compared to other aspects of the energy sector like oil, nat gas, coal, renewables, and lithium, that nuclear gaining more traction in markets and with nations again gives prospects for higher prices for contracted uranium offtake. This should allow uranium stocks to rise in valuation in out-sized ways compared to other parts of the energy sector that have already have massive runs more recently.
Uranium Market Minute – Episode 197: IEA Proposes a Doubling of Nuclear
Uranium Insider w/ Justin Huhn – Oct 29, 2022
Fed expected to again raise rates by 75 basis points then ‘lay the ground for a step down’
Jennifer Schonberger · Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter – Mon, October 31, 2022
“And after that, markets expect the central bank to come off its hawkish stance to lower inflation and slow down the pace of rate hikes unless data continues to show stubbornly hot inflation.”
“We do expect Chair Jerome Powell to… use the post-FOMC press conference to lay the ground for a step down in the pace of rate hikes,” Michael Pearce, senior US economist Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “He could do so by acknowledging the slowdown in the real economy already underway and emphasizing the lags between slowing economic activity and weakening price pressures.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fed-expected-to-again-raise-rates-223821317.html
Some talk about they will do the 75 and then waffle on December giving serfs hope of a turn around or slow down. Could get a pop in markets for the elections and then throw water on it. The question is always going to be what is good for Western banks or their brothers-in-law.
If IPT can’t get off its ass today I’ll be a little upset.
IPT earnings were down but they called it correctly: “down on significantly lower silver prices”.
There you go intervention criminals: if you determine the price of a commodity in a paper market of speculators, that gave no interest in determining the cost in producing and/or supply/ demand of the commodity (only interested in counter intuitive personal gain), then you end up with dysfunctional earnings. So who takes the hit? Do the Speculator/insiders go to jail for Market Manipulation? Of course not.
As long as you promote a criminal system of price setting, you continue to have criminal regulators.
When IPT moves it will seem to come out of nowhere but rising silver will be the reason as usual.
For example:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&st=2015-02-18&en=2016-08-22&id=p26745840310
Yep, when IPT does get moving with higher metals it has far more torque than the most producers or even many junior explorers and developers, and it will startle the doubters with how much it starts to outperform. Conversely, it gets beat up a bit more than others during bearish or corrective periods, but that volatility moves in both directions. It’s easy for people to pick on stocks like IPT during these trends, but we’ll see if they come back on to congratulate IPT during the “rip-your-face-off” rallies.
Thankful that almost every time I put up a comment, some helpful information comes back from one of you guys.
For what it’s worth, I’ve bought a lot of IPT lately. It is in excellent shape to take full advantage of silver’s next run whenever it finally starts.
Tooooooooooday, looks to be a green day for the metals. DT✔
+1 Yes indeed it is a green day in the gold and silver stocks.
TSX trading platform is having trouble trading on all symbols, explains the poor volume on an up day for the PMs. HZD, Silver down etf, last traded at $23.25 and has a bid/ask of $32.86… don’t take anything as correct IMHO until this is resolved.
Includes all exchanges in the TMX group so the CDNX (venture) is not trading at all…
Nothing I own has traded in the last 40 minutes.
Should be resolved by 11:10 Eastern time.
Isn’t that convenient… where were the computer problems on the last 200 down days.
My account being walked back …. again. Now only 50% of open. Some things don’t seem to change.
Some things don’t seem to change…. YUP! Life is one gripe after another. DT😏
You got me tagged DT. Sometimes things just get old. I hate intervention.
Lake, you never want to go into an old age home because most seniors just settle into a routine where everything bothers them all the time, just saying! LOL! DT
I can see a lot of potential for organising a movement.
Here is what I have been doing over the last couple of days: Adding to Nine Mile, Empress, Defiance, I-80, Snowline, Tectonic, Impact and Southern Silver. I complain in-between buys. Good news out on Nine Mile and I-80.
NEM is holding up well considering the earnings miss. Most of the bad news was probably already priced-in.
Remember that all news is bad at major lows just as all news is good at major highs.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47585395987&a=1220075898
That sounds like Good News which is bad.
So where’s sell: sell: SELL JOE?
He conveniently doesn’t post on green up days, but will be back the next big red down day to tell everyone to sell everything.
25 Hot Housing Markets That Are Finally Starting To Cool
Elena Cox – Oct 31, 2022
“Agent Advice examined September listing data from Realtor.com to see which major metro areas are seeing the largest share of price reductions. This analysis was limited to the 250 largest metropolitan areas, including the main city and surrounding towns and suburbs. Price reductions are the number of listings that have had their list price dropped within that area during the month of September. Reductions are a sign sellers may be expecting too much for their properties, especially as the Fed’s increased interest rates have begun to put pressure on buyers.”
https://omaha.com/business/investment/personal-finance/25-hot-housing-markets-that-are-finally-starting-to-cool/collection_c624726e-af0c-518d-b5f9-0cbcfbbea827.html#1